共和党的逃离者
2021年1月佐治亚州的参议员补选情况对共和党有很大的负面意义，原因不外乎两个，一是基层的特朗普支持者袖手旁观，刻意让当权派候选人出局，宁可输给民主党也不把票投给当权派；二是佐治亚这个传统深红州已经开始转变为蓝州。无论是哪种可能，这对于共和党的当权派来说都不是好消息。从长远来看，更大的坏消息是比佐治亚州更大的深红州得克萨斯州也在逐步变蓝，2020年大选两党在得克萨斯州的得票率已经相当接近。而近些年民主党在南部最大的选举策略就是让得克萨斯州变蓝，而且他们的确在朝着这个目标稳步前进。这使得共和党的总体发展相当不乐观，会让共和党的内部团结成为最大的难题。大量的当权派议员可能会选择往民主党靠拢，逐渐脱离由特朗普主义主导的共和党右翼势力。这将深刻地影响美国未来政治版图的改变。
特朗普对共和党的冲击力无疑是相当大的，早在2016年初他加入共和党竞选队伍时，美国舆论界就预言他将改变共和党。特朗普在四年总统任期内与当权派的关系从对抗走向了断裂，这让美国政治的大转折若隐若现。但是特朗普主义与共和党当权派的首鼠两端并不是单向的因果关系，而是互为因果关系。特朗普能够在党内初选一路过关斩将，就是因为他的竞选主张呼应了绝大多数对美国政治“受够了”的基层群体。这个群体包括失落的底层白人工人阶层，也包括非裔、拉丁裔和亚裔中的很多选民。相比优绩主义精英思想，他们更讨厌全球化、多元化和当权派的政治正确原则。他们的确深刻改变了共和党的政治生态，不断挤压当权派政客的生存空间。
一个标志性的变化是参议院的共和党领袖麦康内尔对特朗普两次弹劾案的态度变化。麦康内尔代表共和党当权派力量，第一次弹劾案时他在参议院发表了一个很长、很强有力的讲话，表达了对民主党人的愤怒，并公开表示是众议院在滥用权力。(34)他的那次讲话很有水平，理论水平很高，演讲水平也是一流。但是第二次弹劾时，他的态度突然发生了很大变化，他在弹劾案表决前公开表示他在考虑要不要赞成弹劾特朗普，在弹劾后他也发表了一个公开讲话，对特朗普进行了谴责。(35)他解释投下反对票的原因是参议院无法对一个普通美国公民进行弹劾，但是特朗普应负各种责任，包括法律上可诉的刑事责任和民事责任等。这是一个重大分野，因为他是共和党在美国最高政治殿堂—参议院的领袖。这个位置的取得不比总统容易多少。有时候，这个位置的人物才是真正决定美国命运的人物。麦康奈尔是老谋深算的资深政客，他在态度发生急剧转变前一定是经过深思熟虑的，他认为这是他与特朗普分割的最佳时机，所以他让妻子赵晓兰成为国会山事件后辞去特朗普政府部长职务的第一人。离开特朗普主义的麦康奈尔只能将自己的政治命运与中间选民进行捆绑。
这是共和党内部张力几乎达到最大的时刻。第二次弹劾结束后，特朗普立即发表了严厉的声明，以前所未有的力度谴责了麦康奈尔，公开与这位最大的共和党当权派领袖决裂。根本原因在于麦康奈尔表示自己之所以没有投赞成票，是因为国会没有权力弹劾一个已经离任的总统，并不是因为特朗普无罪，而且主张可以循刑事罪和民事诉讼的路子检控前总统特朗普。在特朗普看来，这和民主党的诉求其实已经基本一致了，这在根本上是他不能忍受的。(36)在特朗普的第二次弹劾案中，共和党内部的瓦解程度并不小。参议员罗姆尼已经第二次投下弹劾特朗普的赞成票，众议员切尼成为弹劾特朗普的重要推手，麦卡锡也不愿意对切尼的投票行为进行谴责。这几位议员并不是打算立刻退休的政客，而是刚刚开始准备在华盛顿大展拳脚，他们与特朗普为敌之后马上会面临来年的国会中期选举，不仅他们自己要保住议员的位置，还要带领属于同一阵营的党内同人也取得足够多的议席，才能继续保持在国会的影响力。
特朗普想把共和党往特朗普主义的右翼方向引导，他甚至已经在寻找可以在中期选举中击败这些远离特朗普主义的当权派议员的党内候选人，一方面他需要说服共和党的选民，另一方面他需要说服共和党的金主。(37)共和党内的热门政治人物已经展开了激烈的内部路线斗争。与切尼等发动对特朗普的弹劾不同，部分新生代国会议员如格林、盖茨等在国会山事件之后反而更加衷心拥戴特朗普主义，双方形成了鲜明对比，都想把共和党的选民拉向不同的方向。共和党当权派明白他们无法驯服特朗普及其拥护者，因为特朗普拥有组建新党的“政治核按钮”。1月6日冲击国会山事件发生后特朗普的支持度依然没有消退，大家反而在随后举行的具有标志性意义的保守政党联盟大会上看到，共和党大量中生代、新生代政治人物纷纷跑到特朗普的海湖庄园向他靠拢，这让共和党当权派感到绝望，他们已经看不到与极右翼保守派之间有什么调和的余地，留在特朗普身边反而有随时被抛弃的可能，只能选择离开。从这个角度来看，不得不说前众议院议长瑞恩当时的退休决定还是挺有远见的。(38)
美国是典型的实行两党制的国家，第三大党在“赢者通吃”的选举模式下没有太大的生存空间，对于特朗普来讲，另组新党肯定是下下策。特朗普在卸任后与共和党高层见面时也不断强调会帮助共和党赢下2022年的中期选举，但是他肯定在等待中期选举的结果是否符合他的方向，未必会完全放弃组建新党的选项，除非他推举的候选人能够排挤掉党内曾经激烈反对他的政客。即使他不做出如此巨大的决定，他也已经彻底改变了共和党，大大改变了美国的政治版图。共和党内很多当权派人物已经被逼得只能向民主党激进路线靠拢。极右派已经不愿意与当权派以及像罗姆尼这样的名义上的共和党人站在同一阵营了。事实上，成为特朗普的战略盟友只会让这些资深共和党政客的选票空间越来越小，他们早已在为自己铺路了。只不过如果共和党内这样的游离政客越来越多，就会加速共和党的瓦解。
罗姆尼是一个非常值得研究的样本，他是大富豪，属于共和党政客中金融资产阶级的代表人物、2012年共和党总统候选人，属于桑德尔教授笔下的优绩主义的典型代言人。他虽然心胸狭窄，但是为人精明，经历2016年和2020年两次大选，他很清楚他所奉为圭臬的滴漏理论和优绩主义在共和党的工人阶层选民中已经日落西山，美国政治版图出现了自20世纪60年代民权运动以来最大的两党意识形态基础轮替，他所代表的金融资产阶级基础已经很大程度上转移到民主党的麾下。于是他主动寻求向自由主义的方向靠拢，以争取扩大选民基础，所以他对特朗普非常决绝，两次弹劾都投下赞成票。2020年发生轰轰烈烈的BLM运动时，他高调上街参与游行示威，为的就是要争取民主党和共和党两党当权盘面的选票。要知道，2012年5月大选前他在佛罗里达的一个闭门集资会议上的一段私下讲话被人偷录下来，他说美国有47%的人吃政府的饭，他根本不会考虑这部分人，因为这部分人只会投票给奥巴马。(39)这段录音被偷录的杂志社上传到互联网社交平台之后，对他的选情造成了不可挽回的损失。(40)然而，他现在却主动跳进这个他原本不屑的47%人群中了。他的叛逃是**裸的，说明他已经看到了共和党的分裂无法避免。2019年他加入民主党人的队伍，签署了一个法案，该法案加重了对富人的征税，而让低收入者可以无条件获得现金资助。这与7年前参加总统大选的他判若两人。(41)如果在犹他州没能出现强劲的民主党对手，他的参议员宝座就是稳稳当当的。虽然从政治道德上这种变节行为有点不光彩，但是对于他这样的亿万富豪来说，保住权力比什么都重要。2021年1月初，罗姆尼在盐湖城机场候机厅被一位女士当场质问为何不支持总统，之后在飞机上又被同机的特朗普支持者齐声呛成“叛徒”。(42)
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